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The Current Venture Capital Outlook

May 8, 2024

While the U.S. has averted any kind of serious recession and slow down, there are a few lingering areas of concern. On a previous episode of The Wealth Enterprise Briefing, we discussed concerns in the commercial real estate space, and in our latest episode, WE Family Offices Managing Partner Michael Zeuner and Senior Investment Manager Matt Farrell, CAIA, examine the challenges and potential opportunities in the venture capital space and discuss how investors may navigate fluctuating market dynamics.

Specifically, they discuss:

  • The Impact of Interest Rates: Higher interest rates have led to markdowns in venture valuations, impacting investor portfolios. It’s crucial to recognize the influence of interest rates on the valuation of growth companies, which are often priced based on revenue multiples.
  • Managing Expectations for Different Vintage Years: Investors should adjust their expectations for vintage years, particularly those with peak valuations, such as 2020. However, disciplined managers who deploy capital strategically may still achieve positive returns.
  • Identifying Opportunities: Despite challenges, the current market environment presents attractive opportunities for capital deployment. With valuations lower than pre-COVID levels and the peak in February 2021, investors can explore promising investment prospects.
  • Promising Themes in Venture Capital: Themes such as AI and biotech continue to drive innovation in the venture capital space. Despite economic downturns, innovation persists, offering avenues for growth and investment.

“The key for private investors is to stay committed, to be very selective and to understand that there has been a lot of negative and downward pressure in the space, but a lot of that is driven not necessarily by fundamentally unhealthy companies, but more by the dynamics of the effect of interest rates and public market, public markets on their valuations,” Michael Zeuner said.

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